Pradeep Arumugham: Deaths, hospitalizations increase due to relaxed social distancing

Internationally – total confirmed cases 6,920,214. Deaths 400,225 Gives a death rate of 5.78%. That is 58 people out of 1000 confirmed cases died with this virus.

United States – total cases 1,920,061 Deaths 109,802 Gives a death rate of 5.71%. That is 57 of 1000 confirmed cases died with this virus.

North Carolina – total cases 34,625 Death 996. Gives a death rate of 2.87%. That is 38.7 out of 1000 confirmed cases died with this virus. 996 hospitalizations.

Surrounding counties.

Lenoir – total cases 215 death 7
Jones – total cases 26 death 3
Greene – total cases 95 death 2
Pitt – total cases 394 death 2
Onslow – total cases 134 death 2
Beaufort- total cases 41 death 0
Bertie – total cases 134 death 4
Craven – total cases 232 death 5
Carteret – total cases 39 death 3
Wayne – total cases 1306 death 20
Duplin – total cases 1006 death 19
Forsyth – total cases 1774 death 17
Nash – total cases 236 death 4
Wilson – total cases 443 death 12
Some concerns I have with these numbers. NC numbers are climbing. The percentage positives, the deaths and the daily hospitalizations are climbing. These cannot be due to increased testing. The total cases go up due to increased testing but hospitalizations cannot go up due to increased testing.
This is due relaxing social distancing and people not taking care. In the next two weeks the chances are it will go up further especially because of the protests.
Now for some education.
The recovery trial
This is a multi center trial testing multiple strategies in hospitalized COVID patients.
Lopinavir-Ritonavir (commonly used to treat HIV)
Low-dose Dexamethasone (a type of steroid, which is used in a range of conditions typically to reduce inflammation).
Azithromycin (a commonly used antibiotic)
Tocilizumab (an anti-inflammatory treatment given by injection)
Convalescent plasma (collected from donors who have recovered from COVID-19 and contains antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus).
The hydroxychloroquine part of the study has been closed.
A total of 1542 patients were randomised to hydroxychloroquine and compared with 3132 patients randomised to usual care alone. There was no significant difference in the primary endpoint of 28-day mortality (25.7% hydroxychloroquine vs. 23.5% usual care; hazard ratio 1.11 [95% confidence interval 0.98-1.26]; p=0.10). There was also no evidence of beneficial effects on hospital stay duration or other outcomes. In short 25.7% of the people randomly assigned to hydroxychloroquine died vs 23.5% in the sugar pill group.
This is truly the first randomized trial for hydroxychloroquine that has been reported. It has not been published in a peer reviewed journal yet. More details will come out at the time. The study did not show any benefit of hydroxychloroquine compared to sugar pills.
Two article have been retracted from the Lancet and nejm since the data collection and methods could not be independently verified.both studies were observational data. The above study is a randomized clinical trail and is the pinnacle of research studies. In general physicians should prescribe meds based on randomized trials.
Pradeep Arumugham is a Greenville, NC, cardiologist and faculty member at the East Carolina University School of Medicine. His Facebook post is distributed on New Bern Post with his permission.
June 8th, 2020 by
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