Democrats, Republicans, whites, and females have been slightly more likely to vote in this year’s General Election, according to data gleaned from absentee ballots that have arrived so far.
Slightly under-represented have been blacks and other races, males, undesignated genders, unaffiliated voters, and third-party voters.
These data do not take into account early voting or voter turnout on Nov. 3, Election Day, and under-voting populations may correct themselves between early voting and Election-Day voting.
Voter turnout is key in North Carolina, statistically a purple state that will be key for whomever wins the White House and Senate next week.
Republican President Trump faces a strong opponent with former Vice President Joe Biden, a Democrat. North Carolina is a toss-up state for President. And U.S Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is behind in polls against challenger Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham.
North Carolina plays a less critical role in the House of Representatives, which is already controlled by the Democratic Party and is likely to remain so.
Democrats represent 35.66 percent of registered voters in North Carolina, and 38.62 percent total voter turnout. Democrats also have the highest turnout from within their own party, at 57.08 percent.
Republicans represent 30.24 percent of registered voters in North Carolina, and 31.25 percent of total voter turnout. Republicans have the second highest turnout from within their own party, at 54.47 percent.
Here’s what may be a critical set of statistics: Unaffiliated voters, the second largest block of voters in North Carolina behind Democrats, represent 33.36 percent of registered voters in North Carolina but come in third in ballots cast, at 29.65 percent.
How independent voters swing between now and Tuesday will determine where North Carolina’s Electoral College votes go, and who will represent North Carolina in the U.S. Senate.
In short, the 2,447,870 unaffiliated voters in North Carolina could potentially decide who controls the White House AND the Senate. And if the races are really tight, the outcome may be decided by third-party voters who represent just 0.74% of registered voters in North Carolina.
Third party voters (Libertarian, Constitution, and Green), Blacks, and the 601,713 who are of undesignated gender have been under-voting, at least by absentee ballots.
Here’s the data:
Registration and Ballots Cast by Party
|Party||Total registered||Total %||Votes cast||Turnout||Proportion|
Registration and Ballots Cast by Race
|Race||Total registered||Total %||Votes cast||Turnout||Proportion|
Registration and Ballots Cast by Gender
|Gender||Total registered||Total %||Votes cast||Turnout||Proportion|