Here is the latest Special Tropical Weather Outlook, issued by NHC at 8:10 a.m. EDT Saturday morning, discussing the potential for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of Florida.
An area of low pressure is located just offshore of the southeast coast of Florida and continues to produce shower activity and gusty winds from portions of southeast and east-central Florida eastward across the Northwest Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters.
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low is gradually becoming better defined, but the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. Continued gradual development is expected, and the system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm later today or tonight while it moves north-northeastward over the Atlantic waters east of Florida.
The system has a high (80 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and five days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the disturbance. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic near or east of the Carolinas.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of east-central Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through today. In addition, hazardous marine conditions will spread northward during the next few days, likely causing dangerous surf and rip currents along much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the U.S. For more details, see products from your local NWS weather office – www.weather.gov
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by NHC be 3 p.m. EDT Saturday , or earlier if needed. www.hurricanes.gov