Category: Health

June 11th, 2020 by newbernpostadmin

Internationally – total confirmed cases 7,291,484. Deaths 413,058 Gives a death rate of 5.66%. That is 57 people out of 1000 confirmed cases died with this virus.

United States – total cases 1,961,428 Deaths 111,694 Gives a death rate of 5.7%. That is 57 of 1000 confirmed cases died with this virus.

North Carolina – total cases 37,160 Death 1053. Gives a death rate of 2.83%. That is 28.3 out of 1000 confirmed cases died with this virus. 780 hospitalizations.

Surrounding counties.
Lenoir – total cases 261 death 8
Jones – total cases 25 death 3
Greene – total cases 106 death 2
Pitt – total cases 416 death 2
Onslow – total cases 136 death 2
Beaufort- total cases 43 death 0
Bertie – total cases 134 death 4
Craven – total cases 241 death 5
Carteret – total cases 42 death 3
Wayne – total cases 1367 death 20
Duplin – total cases 1072 death 20
Forsyth – total cases 1910 death 18
Nash – total cases 248 death 4
Wilson – total cases 456 death 13

Nc hospitalizations with COVID 19 continue to climb. This is concerning. Deaths and hospitalizations are the true numbers to follow. They do not go up because of increased testing. Please follow social distancing guidelines. Wear masks it prevents spread. Avoid people as much as possible. I am including only the hospitalization graphs for this one. Now it is just a matter of wait and watch.

To get some fake news stuff out of the way.

  1. Yes there is Preop COVID testing, no this will not increase your case numbers significantly, however the percent testing numbers will spuriously go down because we are testing people who have no reason to be tested.
  2. Masks do help significantly control spread. It will reduce your chance of getting an infection and will reduce your chance of spreading the infection.
  3. No, this is not like the flu, it is nothing like the flu and yes it is scary.
  4. Hydroxychloroquine does not work – all the evidence so far points away from it. If there is positive evidence that comes in the future at that time it can be prescribed.
  5. Yes, children do die with this illness but it is still very rare.

Ps: I still collect all the other data and update all the graphs in case anyone needs it.

Posted in Health, State news

June 10th, 2020 by newbernpostadmin

The Lenoir County Health Department is reporting the ninth death in the county of a resident who had tested positive for COVID-19.

The patient was under 65 and had underlying medical conditions. To protect the family’s privacy, no further information will be released.

It is Lenoir County’s second death and a week. Onslow County also reported a death in the last week.

The eight-county region including Craven County has seen a spike in new cases and deaths in the last week.

Posted in ENC Region, Health

June 8th, 2020 by newbernpostadmin

Internationally – total confirmed cases 6,920,214. Deaths 400,225 Gives a death rate of 5.78%. That is 58 people out of 1000 confirmed cases died with this virus.

United States – total cases 1,920,061 Deaths 109,802 Gives a death rate of 5.71%. That is 57 of 1000 confirmed cases died with this virus.

North Carolina – total cases 34,625 Death 996. Gives a death rate of 2.87%. That is 38.7 out of 1000 confirmed cases died with this virus. 996 hospitalizations.

Surrounding counties.

Lenoir – total cases 215 death 7
Jones – total cases 26 death 3
Greene – total cases 95 death 2
Pitt – total cases 394 death 2
Onslow – total cases 134 death 2
Beaufort- total cases 41 death 0
Bertie – total cases 134 death 4
Craven – total cases 232 death 5
Carteret – total cases 39 death 3
Wayne – total cases 1306 death 20
Duplin – total cases 1006 death 19
Forsyth – total cases 1774 death 17
Nash – total cases 236 death 4
Wilson – total cases 443 death 12
Some concerns I have with these numbers. NC numbers are climbing. The percentage positives, the deaths and the daily hospitalizations are climbing. These cannot be due to increased testing. The total cases go up due to increased testing but hospitalizations cannot go up due to increased testing.
Why?
This is due relaxing social distancing and people not taking care. In the next two weeks the chances are it will go up further especially because of the protests.
Now for some education.
https://www.recoverytrial.net
The recovery trial
This is a multi center trial testing multiple strategies in hospitalized COVID patients.
Lopinavir-Ritonavir (commonly used to treat HIV)
Low-dose Dexamethasone (a type of steroid, which is used in a range of conditions typically to reduce inflammation).
Hydroxychloroquine
Azithromycin (a commonly used antibiotic)
Tocilizumab (an anti-inflammatory treatment given by injection)
Convalescent plasma (collected from donors who have recovered from COVID-19 and contains antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus).
The hydroxychloroquine part of the study has been closed.
A total of 1542 patients were randomised to hydroxychloroquine and compared with 3132 patients randomised to usual care alone. There was no significant difference in the primary endpoint of 28-day mortality (25.7% hydroxychloroquine vs. 23.5% usual care; hazard ratio 1.11 [95% confidence interval 0.98-1.26]; p=0.10). There was also no evidence of beneficial effects on hospital stay duration or other outcomes. In short 25.7% of the people randomly assigned to hydroxychloroquine died vs 23.5% in the sugar pill group.
This is truly the first randomized trial for hydroxychloroquine that has been reported. It has not been published in a peer reviewed journal yet. More details will come out at the time. The study did not show any benefit of hydroxychloroquine compared to sugar pills.
Two article have been retracted from the Lancet and nejm since the data collection and methods could not be independently verified.both studies were observational data. The above study is a randomized clinical trail and is the pinnacle of research studies. In general physicians should prescribe meds based on randomized trials.
Pradeep Arumugham is a Greenville, NC, cardiologist and faculty member at the East Carolina University School of Medicine. His Facebook post is distributed on New Bern Post with his permission.

Posted in Health, State news

June 8th, 2020 by newbernpostadmin

Craven County averaged six new cases per day over the weekend, with all attributed to previously known positive cases of COVID-19.

In the 72 hours since the Craven County Health Department’s previous report, which was Friday, the number of new cases increased by 18, the number of active cases has increased from 73 to 90 cases, and the number of hospitalizations increased from three to five cases.

Meanwhile, the number of recovered cases increased by just one.

“All of the newest cases in today’s report are a direct contact to a previously confirmed positive case,” said Amber Tabarrini, a Craven County Health Department official. “About half of those cases are connected to the cluster that dramatically increased our numbers in the month of May. The other new cases are due to contact with some of the community spread cases that we have reported since the end of May.”

In the eight-county region in and around Craven County, there was an increase of 18 cases over the past 24 hours. One death was also reported in Lenoir County.

Absent any reports over the weekend from the Craven County Health Department, the Post relied on numbers from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. Numbers between the two agencies often differ from day to day, but generally keep pace with each other.

Armed with fresh numbers on Monday morning, the Craven County Health Department said Craven County has 239 confirmed COVID-19 cases as of 11 a.m. on June 8, 2020.

Of the newest cases, nine were confirmed on June 6, 2020, one on June 7, 2020, and seven on June 8, 2020.

Of the 239 cases, eight have been related to out of state travel, 31 are from community transmission, 196 are a direct contact with a previously confirmed positive case, and four are unknown at this time.  There have been five deaths related to COVID-19. Five of the active COVID-19 cases are currently hospitalized.

Out of the 239 confirmed positive cases, 144 of those individuals have recovered, are doing well, and are out of isolation. The recovered cases completed the necessary isolation requirement and have been free of COVID-19 symptoms for at least 72 hours.

States

Finally, Gov. Roy Cooper held a news conference on Monday in which he pointed out the state’s COVID-19 cases are trending in the wrong direction, which could affect Phase 3 and could affect reopening public schools in the fall.

Urging continued vigilance, Cooper said, “I would rather open schools than bars.”

As one of New Bern Post’s less enlightened readers commented online today, “Unable to believe that roy cooper and randy foster with their combined medical expertise have not been invited along with NC DHHS director to consult with the CDC on covid solutions.”

Governor Cooper relaxed restrictions under pressure from protesters, Republican leaders, and President Trump. The numbers show the consequences.

How effective have preventive measures been for North Carolina? Here’s a chart arranged by number of cases and deaths (unsurprisingly, the same ranking) compared to where the state stands in population. North Carolina ranks 9th in population and 17th in cases and deaths.

Here’s the data:

 

 

 

Posted in Craven County, Health

June 7th, 2020 by newbernpostadmin

Craven County, with 232 cases, is just one case behind Lenoir, with 233. During this pandemic, in the eight county region in and around Craven County, Pitt County has had the most cases, followed in order by Lenoir and Craven counties. That order could be about to change.

Craven County’s infection numbers are accelerating and confirmed COVID-19 cases here are about to overtake neighboring hotspot Lenoir County.

The region as a whole has seen a spike, jumping 97 cases in the past 48 hours. That rate is about five times higher than has become “normal” for the region since the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic started showing up in North Carolina in early March.

Just as sobering is the increasing number of cases in Craven County that have been contracted “in the wild” — community-spread cases for which the source is unknown but likely local.

That’s when you catch the virus from an infected person while, say, eating at a restaurant, hanging out at the country club, spending the day shopping — those things that have been happening since restrictions were relaxed under Phase 1 on May 8 and Phase 2 on May 22.

Add to that participating in protest marches and sharing megaphones.

And by the way, Phase 3 could kick in as early as June 19.

We got a glimpse of increased instances of community spread from reports out of the Craven County Health Department Thursday and Friday. But for the first time in a couple of months, the Health Department did not release reports over the weekend. Unclear why.

Once it does release its next report, we’ll get a better understanding of the nature of the increases that have been experienced in Craven and its surrounding counties. Hoping to get that data on Monday.

Going by numbers from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, Craven County had 232 confirmed cases when I checked about 1:30 p.m. Sunday. That’s 11 more than was reported around noon on Friday.

The Craven County Health Department’s report drills down more than the NCDHHS report, providing such details as whether a new case is community spread, from a known source, or from a source from outside the state (a number that has been stuck on 7 since nearly the beginning), active and recovered cases, deaths, and hospitalizations.

Once a week (Fridays), the Craven Health Department provides statistics about age, gender, mode of transmission, and death rate. It had been providing data about race and ethnicity, but stopped doing that when the county’s super cluster started to develop. Last I checked, the super cluster accounted for about 150 of Craven County’s 232 cases.

The NCDHHS report provides one thing that the county report does not: ZIP code data. In Craven County, the 28562 New Bern ZIP code accounts for the majority of cases in Craven County, with 149 lab-confirmed cases as of Sunday afternoon.

Comparing day-to-day statistics, it appears most of the super cluster patients reside in the 28562 ZIP code, because it had the fastest-rising number as the cluster grew.

If you think COVID-19 is a thing of the past, think again.

Here’s more stuff for you to look at.

 

 

While I’m at it I’ll add this:

 

 

If you want to see the data yourself, go here.

Posted in Craven County, Health

June 6th, 2020 by newbernpostadmin

Coastal Carolina Regional Airport (EWN) announced that they have been identified as one of 75 communities to temporarily lose a portion of the air service related to schedule reductions by 15 airlines, resulting from the continued impact of COVID on the airline industry.

The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) recently changed the standard for airlines to request exemption for providing air service to all of the communities where they operated prior to the COVID crisis.

They are switching to a “systematic process” to allow carriers to “reduce the number of points they must serve as a proportion of their total service obligation.”

Their plan “will allow carriers to exempt from their service obligation five (5) percent of the points in their service obligation list, or five (5) points, whichever is greater.”

The DOT will grant exemptions to carriers, allowing airlines to suspend flight operations at defined airports while ensuring that the airport continues to be served by at least one carrier.

As a result of the DOT’s rule change, Delta Air Lines will plan to temporarily suspend air service operations to the Coastal Carolina Regional Airport.

“Delta has not disclosed the exact timing for implementing this change, so passengers with current Delta bookings will need to check with the airline directly” said Andrew Shorter, the Airport Director at Coastal Carolina Regional Airport.

“Our market fundamentals are sound and our airline partners have historically been pleased with their business models here at EWN but these are different times and air travel has been off by as much as 96% during this crisis,” Shorter stated.

American Airlines will continue to serve the Coastal Carolina Regional Airport with regular daily nonstop service to Charlotte International Airport (CLT) with one-stop flight connections to points around the United States and the world.

In an effort to gauge the demand signal moving forward, visit flyewn.com to fill out a brief travel survey so that the airport can demonstrate how the need for air service here at EWN will continue to be strong.

Posted in Craven County, Health, New Bern, Transportation

June 5th, 2020 by newbernpostadmin

Six more cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in Craven County over the past 24 hours, including four whose origin has not yet been determined.

Along with the increase in confirmed cases is an increase in active cases, which had been declining as members of a super cluster recover from the highly contagious viral disease.

Craven County has 221 confirmed COVID-19 cases as of 11:30 a.m. on June 5, 2020.

Of the 221 cases, seven have been related to out of state travel, 31 are from community transmission, 179 are a direct contact with a previously confirmed positive, and four are unknown at this time.

Out of the 221 confirmed positive cases, 143 of those individuals have recovered, are doing well, and are out of isolation. The recovered cases completed the necessary isolation requirement and have been free of COVID-19 symptoms for at least 72 hours.

There have been five deaths related to COVID-19. Three of the active COVID-19 cases are currently hospitalized.

Because readers have asked, here is the breakdown by ZIP code of COVID-19 cases. Since May 30, the 28562 ZIP code has seen an increase of five cases. The 28560 ZIP code saw an increase of three cases. The 28586 ZIP code (Vanceboro area) saw an increase of six cases. Other ZIP codes in the Craven County area saw no or negligible increases in lab-confirmed cases.

A comparison of recent data shows that the Vanceboro area has seen a fairly significant increase in cases, from 8 to 14 cases.

It is difficult to parse the publicly available data, but recent increases have been largely community-spread, leading one to conclude that community-spread cases (as opposed to known sources) is surging in that area.

 

Here is other info from the Craven County Health Department’s Friday report:

        

Craven County COVID-19 Cases by Age, Gender, Death Rate, and Mode of Transmission

AGE

0-17

18-24

25-49

50-64

65+

Percent of Total Cases

19%

10%

43%

19%

9%

 

 

GENDER

Male

Female

   Percent of Total Cases

53%

47%

DEATH RATE

North Carolina

Craven County

Per 100,000   

         9.15 *data from 6-4-20

4.89

 

MODE OF TRANSMISSION

Travel

Community Transmission

Direct Contact

Unknown

   Percent of Total Cases

3%

14%

81%

2%

 

 

Missing from recent Friday reports is the racial and ethnic mix of COVID-19 cases. Early reports showed a disproportionate percentage of African Americans being infected with the virus (62 percent of infections, though African Americans account for 21 percent of the county’s population as a whole).

The county stopped reporting racial and ethnic data once there was a cluster of family, friends, and co-workers that accounted for a majority of the county’s cases (80 percent at one point).

Had the county continued to report the racial and ethnic data, the spike cluster would have shown up in the overall data and may have made revealed who they were, or at least what community they were part of.

The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) restricts medical practitioners from revealing personal information about patients. The county has carried that law one step further, even withholding information about the five people who have died of COVID-19 or COVID-19 was a factor in their death, even though their death certificates are public record.

Region

The eight-county region in and around Craven County saw a 24-hour increase of 30 lab-confirmed cases, about on track with its daily totals. Pitt County leads the region, with Lenoir County following about 100 cases behind, but Craven County is slowly catching up with Lenoir County and is within six cases (see chart below).

 

 

Posted in Craven County, Health

June 4th, 2020 by newbernpostadmin

Phase 1 and Phase 2 relaxation of COVID-19 preventive restrictions may be to blame for an uptick in laboratory-confirmed, community-spread cases in Craven County.

After a lull of several days, Craven County saw an increase of seven cases in the past 24 hours, four of which were attributed to “community spread.” The remaining three new cases are from unknown sources.

Community spread cases are when an individual likely caught the virus in Craven County, but the source is unknown.

Phase 1 began on May 8 and Phase 2 began on May 22. Restaurants resumed public seating in Phase 2, for example.

The Craven County Health Department reported 215 confirmed COVID-19 cases as of 11 a.m. on June 4, 2020. The North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services reported 216 confirmed cases in Craven County.

Of the 215 cases, seven have been related to out of state travel, 31 are from community transmission, 174 are a direct contact with a previously confirmed positive case, and three are unknown at this time.

Out of the 215 confirmed positive cases, 143 of those individuals have recovered, are doing well, and are out of isolation. The recovered cases completed the necessary isolation requirement and have been free of COVID-19 symptoms for at least 72 hours.   There have been five deaths related to COVID-19. Three of the active COVID-19 cases are currently hospitalized.

The Craven County Health Department works with state, commercial, and private labs to track the number of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in Craven County. Health care providers determine which lab they send their COVID-19 tests to. There are multiple hospital and commercial labs that conduct COVID-19 tests. These labs manage their own supplies and operate independently from the Department of Health and Human Services and the North Carolina State Laboratory of Public Health.

Craven County will continue to track and post the number of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases; however, it is important to recognize there are many people with COVID-19 who will not be included in daily counts of laboratory-confirmed cases, including:

  • People who had minimal or no symptoms and were not tested.
  • People who had symptoms but did not seek medical care.
  • People who sought medical care but were not tested.
  • People with COVID-19 in whom the virus was not detected by testing.

The number of laboratory-confirmed cases will increasingly provide a limited picture of the spread of infections in Craven County as COVID-19 becomes more widespread and the number of infected people who are not included in the daily counts of laboratory-confirmed cases increases.

Posted in Craven County, Health

June 2nd, 2020 by newbernpostadmin

Craven County recorded a slight increase in COVID-19 cases in the last two days, but a sharp improvement in the number of recoveries as people who were part of a large cluster of cases begin to recover from the virus.

Craven County has 209 confirmed COVID-19 cases as of 11 a.m. on June 2, 2020.

Out of the 209 confirmed positive cases, 141 of those individuals have recovered, are doing well, and are out of isolation. The recovered cases completed the necessary isolation requirement and have been free of COVID-19 symptoms for at least 72 hours.

Of the 209 cases, seven have been related to out of state travel, 28 are from community transmission, and 174 are a direct contact with a previously confirmed positive case.  There have been five deaths related to COVID-19. Three of the active COVID-19 cases are currently hospitalized.

Craven County citizens are encouraged to use reputable sources of information to learn more about COVID-19 cases in Craven County and North Carolina.  Reputable sources of information include the Craven County Health Department and NC Department of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS) websites.

Regional

Like Craven County, the number of new cases in the eight-county region that includes Craven County reported a slowdown in new cases over the past two days.

 

Posted in Craven County, Health

May 31st, 2020 by newbernpostadmin

Craven County has 207 confirmed COVID-19 cases as of 11:30 a.m. on May 31, 2020, an increase of three in 24 hours.

Of the 207 cases, seven have been related to out of state travel, 27 are from community transmission, and 173 are a direct contact with a previously confirmed positive case.

Out of the 207 confirmed positive cases, 90 of those individuals have recovered, are doing well, and are out of isolation. The recovered cases completed the necessary isolation requirement and have been free of COVID-19 symptoms for at least 72 hours.    There have been five deaths related to COVID-19. Three of the active COVID-19 cases are currently hospitalized.

The Craven County Health Department works with state, commercial, and private labs to track the number of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in Craven County. Health care providers determine which lab they send their COVID-19 tests to. There are multiple hospital and commercial labs that conduct COVID-19 tests. These labs manage their own supplies and operate independently from the Department of Health and Human Services and the North Carolina State Laboratory of Public Health.

Craven County will continue to track and post the number of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases; however, it is important to recognize there are many people with COVID-19 who will not be included in daily counts of laboratory-confirmed cases, including:

  • People who had minimal or no symptoms and were not tested.
  • People who had symptoms but did not seek medical care.
  • People who sought medical care but were not tested.
  • People with COVID-19 in whom the virus was not detected by testing.

The number of laboratory-confirmed cases will increasingly provide a limited picture of the spread of infections in Craven County as COVID-19 becomes more widespread and the number of infected people who are not included in the daily counts of laboratory-confirmed cases increases.       

Region

Saturday to Sunday saw a dip in new cases in the eight-county region including Craven County. It has been around 30 cases per day. Lest that lull you into a sense of security, read Dr. Pradeep Arumugham’s forecast of COVID-19 cases in North Carolina.

Posted in Craven County, Health

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